Author Archives: illiquidideas

Analysing the World Cup 2018, Part 3: I just ran 10,000 World Cups

Introduction It’s been a while since I did Part 1 and Part 2 of this series. I got a little distracted with other things and lost motivation – but now that the tournament is fast approaching, I thought I should finish it up with the promised post that adds some uncertainty to the earlier analysis. […]

Analysing the World Cup 2018, Part 2: Luck of the Draw

Introduction In Part 1 of this series, I looked at whether the combination of a changed group draw system and the failure of a few high-profile teams to qualify meant that the group stage of the 2018 FIFA World Cup would be more boring than in previous tournaments. After deciding on ELO scores as a reasonable way […]

Analysing the World Cup 2018, Part 1: Worth Watching?

It should go without saying that none of the below is gambling advice. Some background Last week we had the draw for the groups of the 2018 FIFA World Cup, to be held in June and July next year in Russia. I tend to get a little too excited about these big football tournaments (excited […]

Links, 28 November 2017

Politics Brexit: The inside story of how David Cameron drove Britain to Brexit The Brexit Veto: How and why Ireland raised the stakes Irish border: Nationalist Brexit rhetoric gets ugly Brexit: an unrecognised bombshell What does trading under WTO rules really mean? Left behind: can anyone save the towns the economy forgot? Beijing Rage Over […]

Links, 7 November 2017

Politics Frontier Culture: The Roots and Persistence of “Rugged Individualism” in the United States Dark Victory in Raqqa Crackdown on Billionaires and Other Top Officials Shakes Up Saudi Arabia and Saudi Heir to the Throne is Crushing His Competition Europe Is Tiring of ‘Anglocondescension’ Brexit was not the voice of the working class nor of […]

Links, 31 October 2017

Politics China: Xi Jinping Thought Vs. Deng Xiaoping Theory Modernity with Chinese Characteristics Why Do We Keep Writing About Chinese Politics As if We Know More Than We Do? Liu Qibao’s speech at symposium commemorating October Revolution Brexit: If you think Brexit looks bad from outside the Government, you should see how bad it looks […]

Links, 24 October 2017

Politics 19th Party Congress: Five top leaders retiring from apex of Chinese leadership (plus some biographies), and China’s Xi Is Elevated To New Level, With Echoes Of Mao and Reading Between the Lines: Xi’s Epic Speech at the 19th Party Congress The White-Minstrel Show and Does Trump Believe His Own Hype? Brexit: deals and no […]